SportsQuant-AI — Game Cheat Sheet

2026-07-17 · generated 2026-07-17 16:40 · moneyline model vs best available market price
15
Games
10
Recommended
6 High · 4 Medium
Confidence
TB @ BOS7:10 PM ET +9.9%LAD @ NYY7:05 PM ET —PIT @ CLE7:10 PM ET +11.4%TEX @ ATL7:15 PM ET +14.3%CWS @ TOR7:15 PM ET +5.5%MIA @ MIL7:40 PM ET +5.4%MIN @ CHC8:05 PM ET +4.3%BAL @ HOU8:10 PM ET +5.4%SD @ KC8:10 PM ET —CIN @ COL8:40 PM ET —DET @ LAA9:38 PM ET +11.0%WSH @ ATH9:40 PM ET +7.9%STL @ AZ9:40 PM ET +9.7%SF @ SEA10:10 PM ET —
Totals (O/U) recommendations are disabled.
TB @ BOS
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
7:10 PM ET · Fenway Park
Moneyline
TB+100
BOS-110
Run Line
TB -1.5+168
BOS +1.5-185
Total: 9
Over+101
Under-110
Proj HRs2.4
TB 39.0%BOS 61.0%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHBOS ML (-110 @ LowVig.ag)Edge: +9.9%
  • Model 61.0% vs Market 51.2%
  • Edge +9.9% on home side (BOS)
  • home team Elo rating: 1563.34 — strong push toward Boston Red Sox
  • home lineup's history vs away starter: 0.296296 — moderate push toward Boston Red Sox
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Boston Red Sox
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.06 — moderate push toward Boston Red Sox
  • home team exit velocity: 85.8861 — moderate push toward Tampa Bay Rays
  • away team Elo rating: 1544.9 — moderate push toward Tampa Bay Rays
Weather: liveweather +3.2% run scoring (+0.28 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: not posted
LAD @ NYY
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
7:05 PM ET · Yankee Stadium
Moneyline
LAD-109
NYY+100
Run Line
LAD -1.5+152
NYY +1.5-160
Total: 9
Over+110
Under-104
LAD 48.4%NYY 51.6%
Moneyline Recommendation
Moneyline recommendation: No clear value (largest gap +2.7%)
Weather: liveweather +4.4% run scoring (+0.39 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: confirmed
PIT @ CLE
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians
7:10 PM ET · Progressive Field
Moneyline
PIT+114
CLE-125
Run Line
PIT +1.5-193
CLE -1.5+175
Total: 7.5
Over-103
Under-102
Proj HRs2.6
PIT 57.1%CLE 42.9%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHPIT ML (+114 @ BetUS)Edge: +11.4%
  • Model 57.1% vs Market 45.7%
  • Edge +11.4% on away side (PIT)
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.275 — strong push toward Pittsburgh Pirates
  • home team strikeout rate: 0.280513 — moderate push toward Pittsburgh Pirates
  • temperature: 88 — moderate push toward Pittsburgh Pirates
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 86.9061 — moderate push toward Pittsburgh Pirates
  • home team Elo rating: 1523.23 — slight push toward Cleveland Guardians
  • home team HR rate: 0.0370972 — slight push toward Cleveland Guardians
Weather: liveweather +6.2% run scoring (+0.55 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: confirmed
TEX @ ATL
Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
7:15 PM ET · Truist Park
Moneyline
TEX+184
ATL-205
Run Line
TEX +1.5-115
ATL -1.5+160
Total: 8
Over-105
Under-106
Proj HRs2.6
TEX 48.7%ATL 51.3%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHTEX ML (+184 @ LowVig.ag)Edge: +14.3%
  • Model 48.7% vs Market 34.4%
  • Edge +14.3% on away side (TEX)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 87.9939 — strong push toward Texas Rangers
  • temperature: 84 — moderate push toward Texas Rangers
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.2 — slight push toward Texas Rangers
  • home lineup's history vs away starter: 0.222222 — slight push toward Texas Rangers
  • away team exit velocity: 86.1111 — moderate push toward Atlanta Braves
  • away lineup's history vs home starter: 0.203704 — moderate push toward Atlanta Braves
Weather: liveweather +5.0% run scoring (+0.45 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: confirmed
CWS @ TOR
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
7:15 PM ET · Rogers Centre
Moneyline
CWS+118
TOR-129
Run Line
CWS +1.5-180
TOR -1.5+160
Total: 8.5
Over-107
Under-105
Proj HRs2.1
CWS 39.4%TOR 60.6%
Moneyline Recommendation
MEDIUMTOR ML (-129 @ BetOnline.ag)Edge: +5.5%
  • Model 60.6% vs Market 55.1%
  • Edge +5.5% on home side (TOR)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 82.5284 — strong push toward Toronto Blue Jays
  • home team strikeout rate: 0.176692 — moderate push toward Toronto Blue Jays
  • home bullpen fatigue: 10 — slight push toward Toronto Blue Jays
  • away team exit velocity: 87.2998 — slight push toward Toronto Blue Jays
  • home team exit velocity: 85.92 — moderate push toward Chicago White Sox
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.2 — slight push toward Chicago White Sox
Weather: liveweather -2.7% run scoring (-0.24 runs) · favors pitchers  ·  Lineups: confirmed
MIA @ MIL
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 PM ET · American Family Field
Moneyline
MIA+135
MIL-147
Run Line
MIA +1.5-160
MIL -1.5+158
Total: 8
Over-107
Under-102
Proj HRs2.3
MIA 47.1%MIL 52.9%
Moneyline Recommendation
MEDIUMMIA ML (+135 @ BetRivers)Edge: +5.4%
  • Model 47.1% vs Market 41.7%
  • Edge +5.4% on away side (MIA)
  • home lineup's history vs away starter: 0.138889 — strong push toward Miami Marlins
  • away team Elo rating: 1568.31 — moderate push toward Miami Marlins
  • away team strikeout rate: 0.160182 — moderate push toward Miami Marlins
  • home team HR rate: 0.0219195 — slight push toward Miami Marlins
  • home team Elo rating: 1587.75 — strong push toward Milwaukee Brewers
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Milwaukee Brewers
Weather: liveweather -2.7% run scoring (-0.24 runs) · favors pitchers  ·  Lineups: not posted
MIN @ CHC
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
8:05 PM ET · Wrigley Field
Moneyline
MIN+130
CHC-140
Run Line
MIN +1.5-154
CHC -1.5+146
Total: 11
Over-102
Under-107
Proj HRs2.7
MIN 38.4%CHC 61.6%
Moneyline Recommendation
MEDIUMCHC ML (-140 @ MyBookie.ag)Edge: +4.3%
  • Model 61.6% vs Market 57.3%
  • Edge +4.3% on home side (CHC)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 84.2161 — strong push toward Chicago Cubs
  • home team HR rate: 0.0482322 — moderate push toward Chicago Cubs
  • home team Elo rating: 1547.71 — moderate push toward Chicago Cubs
  • away lineup's history vs home starter: 0.207407 — moderate push toward Chicago Cubs
  • home lineup's history vs away starter: 0.194444 — moderate push toward Minnesota Twins
  • temperature: 87 — moderate push toward Minnesota Twins
Weather: liveweather +7.0% run scoring (+0.62 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: confirmed
BAL @ HOU
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
8:10 PM ET · Daikin Park
Moneyline
BAL+101
HOU-111
Run Line
BAL -1.5+159
HOU +1.5-183
Total: 8.5
Over+107
Under+103
Proj HRs2.6
BAL 43.2%HOU 56.8%
Moneyline Recommendation
MEDIUMHOU ML (-111 @ BetOnline.ag)Edge: +5.4%
  • Model 56.8% vs Market 51.4%
  • Edge +5.4% on home side (HOU)
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Houston Astros
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.06 — moderate push toward Houston Astros
  • home team HR rate: 0.0432134 — moderate push toward Houston Astros
  • away team HR rate: 0.0422359 — moderate push toward Houston Astros
  • away team exit velocity: 90.5038 — moderate push toward Baltimore Orioles
  • home team exit velocity: 86.4228 — moderate push toward Baltimore Orioles
Weather: liveweather -2.7% run scoring (-0.24 runs) · favors pitchers  ·  Lineups: not posted
SD @ KC
San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
8:10 PM ET · Kauffman Stadium
Moneyline
SD-114
KC+107
Run Line
SD -1.5+135
KC +1.5-150
Total: 10
Over-115
Under+103
SD 50.4%KC 49.6%
Moneyline Recommendation
Moneyline recommendation: No clear value (largest gap +2.0%)
Weather: liveweather +7.0% run scoring (+0.62 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: not posted
CIN @ COL
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ET · Coors Field
Moneyline
CIN+101
COL-108
Run Line
CIN -1.5+146
COL +1.5-163
Total: 12
Over-107
Under-102
CIN 47.6%COL 52.4%
Moneyline Recommendation
Moneyline recommendation: No clear value (largest gap +1.4%)
Weather: liveweather +6.8% run scoring (+0.61 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: not posted
DET @ LAA
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · Angel Stadium
Moneyline
DET-107
LAA+100
Run Line
DET -1.5+150
LAA +1.5-110
Total: 8.5
Over+102
Under-112
Proj HRs2.8
DET 61.8%LAA 38.2%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHDET ML (-107 @ BetUS)Edge: +11.0%
  • Model 61.8% vs Market 50.8%
  • Edge +11.0% on away side (DET)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — strong push toward Detroit Tigers
  • home team Elo rating: 1422.48 — strong push toward Detroit Tigers
  • home team exit velocity: 86.4184 — moderate push toward Detroit Tigers
  • home team HR rate: 0.0184836 — slight push toward Detroit Tigers
  • away team HR rate: 0.0527922 — moderate push toward Los Angeles Angels
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Los Angeles Angels
Weather: forecastweather +2.8% run scoring (+0.25 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: not posted
WSH @ ATH
Washington Nationals at Athletics
9:40 PM ET · Sutter Health Park
Moneyline
WSH-128
ATH+118
Run Line
WSH -1.5+125
ATH +1.5-134
Total: 10
Over-108
Under-102
Proj HRs3.4
WSH 62.9%ATH 37.1%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHWSH ML (-128 @ BetUS)Edge: +7.9%
  • Model 62.9% vs Market 55.0%
  • Edge +7.9% on away side (WSH)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — strong push toward Washington Nationals
  • home team Elo rating: 1400.37 — strong push toward Washington Nationals
  • home team strikeout rate: 0.279913 — moderate push toward Washington Nationals
  • temperature: 87.9 — moderate push toward Washington Nationals
  • away team HR rate: 0.0569483 — strong push toward Athletics
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Athletics
Weather: forecastweather +8.2% run scoring (+0.73 runs) · favors hitters  ·  Lineups: not posted
STL @ AZ
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 PM ET · Chase Field
Moneyline
STL-105
AZ-105
Run Line
STL -1.5+156
AZ +1.5-175
Total: 9
Over+103
Under-105
Proj HRs2.6
STL 59.7%AZ 40.3%
Moneyline Recommendation
HIGHSTL ML (-105 @ BetRivers)Edge: +9.7%
  • Model 59.7% vs Market 50.0%
  • Edge +9.7% on away side (STL)
  • home top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — strong push toward St. Louis Cardinals
  • home team exit velocity: 87.1908 — slight push toward St. Louis Cardinals
  • away team exit velocity: 89.6649 — slight push toward St. Louis Cardinals
  • away team Elo rating: 1515.85 — slight push toward St. Louis Cardinals
  • away top power hitters (exit velo): 91 — moderate push toward Arizona Diamondbacks
  • away top power hitters (HR rate): 0.06 — moderate push toward Arizona Diamondbacks
Weather: forecastweather +0.0% run scoring (+0.00 runs) · neutral  ·  Lineups: not posted
SF @ SEA
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
10:10 PM ET · T-Mobile Park
Moneyline
SF+165
SEA-181
Run Line
SF +1.5-139
SEA -1.5+168
Total: 7
Over+110
Under+105
Proj HRs2.5
SF 57.6%SEA 42.4%
Moneyline Recommendation
Flag suppressed — not bet.
  • edge +20.6% exceeds 15% sanity cap — too good to be true usually means a data problem, not value
Weather: forecastweather +0.0% run scoring (+0.00 runs) · neutral  ·  Lineups: not posted
No odds posted yet
Recommendations are simulated paper bets logged to bet_log.csv for model evaluation — not wagering advice. Flat 1-unit stakes. "Why" bullets are the logistic regression's exact per-feature contributions for this game (value shown is the model's input).